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不同评分模型预测肾移植术后移植物功能延迟恢复的效能研究

乔予希 丁晨光 田普训 丁小明 潘晓鸣 燕航 项和立 冯新顺 侯军 田晓辉 李杨 郑瑾 薛武军

乔予希, 丁晨光, 田普训, 等. 不同评分模型预测肾移植术后移植物功能延迟恢复的效能研究[J]. 器官移植, 2020, 11(3): 379-383. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7445.2020.03.010
引用本文: 乔予希, 丁晨光, 田普训, 等. 不同评分模型预测肾移植术后移植物功能延迟恢复的效能研究[J]. 器官移植, 2020, 11(3): 379-383. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7445.2020.03.010
Qiao Yuxi, Ding Chenguang, Tian Puxun, et al. The efficiency study on different scoring models in predicting delayed graft function after renal transplantation[J]. ORGAN TRANSPLANTATION, 2020, 11(3): 379-383. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7445.2020.03.010
Citation: Qiao Yuxi, Ding Chenguang, Tian Puxun, et al. The efficiency study on different scoring models in predicting delayed graft function after renal transplantation[J]. ORGAN TRANSPLANTATION, 2020, 11(3): 379-383. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7445.2020.03.010

不同评分模型预测肾移植术后移植物功能延迟恢复的效能研究

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7445.2020.03.010
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金 81670681

国家自然科学基金 81760137

国家自然科学基金 81870514

中央高校基本科研业务费 xjj2018091

中国器官移植发展基金会“菁英计划” 2019JYJH04

西安交通大学第一附属医院重大临床研究项目 XJTU1AF-CRF-2015-005

详细信息
    作者简介:

    乔予希,女,1995年生,硕士,研究方向为肾移植、器官捐献,Email:qyuxi0889@163.com

    通讯作者:

    薛武军,男,1961年生,博士,主任医师,教授,研究方向为器官移植、器官捐献、胰岛细胞移植,Email:xwujun126@xjtu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: R617

The efficiency study on different scoring models in predicting delayed graft function after renal transplantation

More Information
  • 摘要:   目的  分析国内外评分模型对我国肾移植术后移植物功能延迟恢复(DGF)的预测效能。  方法  前瞻性分析112例肾移植供者、220例受者的临床资料。将KDRI模型、Jeldres模型以及本中心模型预测的DGF与肾移植受者实际DGF发生率进行对比,分析各模型的预测效能,利用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线的曲线下面积(AUC)比较预测的准确性。  结果  220例肾移植受者中,DGF发生率为14.1%(31/220)。KDRI模型预测DGF高危供者41例,AUC为0.57,灵敏度为0.37,特异度为0.66,阳性预测值为22%。Jedres模型预测DGF高危受者22例,AUC为0.56,灵敏度为0.13,特异度为0.92,阳性预测值为20%。本中心模型预测DGF高危供者25例,AUC为0.80,灵敏度为0.53,特异度为0.84,阳性预测值为40%。  结论  与KDRI和Jedres模型比较,本中心预测模型具有较高的AUC及灵敏度,对DGF有较好的预测效能,是目前适合我国公民逝世后器官捐献供者的评估体系。

     

  • 图  1  不同预测模型的ROC曲线

    Figure  1.  ROC curves of different prediction models

    图  2  不同模型中DGF阳性组和DGF阴性组的评分

    Figure  2.  The scores of DGF positive group and DGF negative group in different models

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-02-13
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-01-19
  • 刊出日期:  2020-05-15

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